Fine wine and alcohol prices can be predicted, but the accuracy of the prediction depends on the chosen forecasting horizon. In our study, we analyse the fine wine indices, as well as the retail and wholesale alcohol prices in the US from January 1992 to March 2022. We use comprehensive datasets...

This paper considers predictive regressions, where y_t is predicted by all p lags of x, here with x being autoregressive of order q, PR(p,q). The literature considers model properties in the cases where p=q. We demonstrate that the current augmented regression method can still reduce the bias in...

Electricity load forecasts are an integral part of many decision-making processes in the electricity market. However, most literature on electricity load forecasting concentrates on deterministic forecasts, neglecting possibly important information about uncertainty. A more complete picture of...

The role of futures markets in stabilizing spot prices has been extensively discussed. Nevertheless, the ability of these markets to achieve the stabilizing function significantly depends on whether they are "efficient" in the sense that futures prices "fully reflect" the available information....

We propose a fear index for corn using the variance swap rate synthesized from out-of-the-money call and put options as a measure of implied variance. We find negative and time-varying variance risk premiums (realized variance minus implied variance) in the corn market from 1987 to 2009. Our...

In Russia where the major volumes of vegetables are traditionally produced by household farms, the fruit and vegetable business started developing quite recently. 2009-2010 were favourable for farm producers: market prices for vegetables were relatively high, investing in the construction of...

Recent advances in precision agriculture technology have increased the potential to capture near-real time data such as planting and yield information. It is well established that information on crop acreage and yield can have value in commodity markets. That is why the USDA conducts farm...

We construct a set of HAR models with three types of infinite Hidden Markov regime switching structures. Particularly, jumps, leverage effects, and speculation effects are taken into account in realized volatility modeling. We forecast five agricultural commodity futures (Corn, Cotton, Indica...

The role of futures markets in stabilizing spot prices has been extensively discussed. Nevertheless, the ability of these markets to achieve the stabilizing function significantly depends on whether they are 'efficient' in the sense that futures prices 'fully reflect' the available information....

This paper demonstrates how satellite images and other geographic data can be used to predict land use. A cross-section model of land use is estimated with data for a region in central Mexico. Parameters from the model are used to examine the effects of reduced human activity. If variables that...