This paper examines persistence in price movements and predictability of the US housing market both on a local level across 20 cities in the US and on a nationwide level. We use a time series approach instead of often applied multivariate approaches to exclude potential biases across markets and...

This chapter reviews the evidence of predictability in US residential and commercial real estate markets. First, we highlight the main methodologies used in the construction of real estate indices, their underlying assumptions and their impact on the stochastic properties of the resultant...

This paper extends the analysis of predictability and persistence of inflation-adjusted house price movements in the UK housing market both on a regional level across 13 regions and on a nationwide level. Applying a univariate time series approach, the results from the quarterly...

While the effects of non-geographic aggregation on inference are well studied in economics, research on geographic aggregation is rather scarce. This knowledge gap together with the use of aggregated spatial units in previous firm location studies result in a lack of understanding of firm...

Innovations in statistical technology have sparked concerns about distributional impacts across categories such as race and gender. Theoretically, as statistical technology improves, distributional consequences depend on how changes in functional forms interact with cross-category distributions...

This paper presents a selected review of what the literature discusses in terms of modelling and forecasting house prices. In particular, it distils fundamental and “other” determinants of house prices used in economic models and identifies the most commonly used econometric approaches to...

We construct daily house price indexes for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the procedure used in the construction of the popular...

While the effects of non-geographic aggregation on inference are well studied in economics, research on geographic aggregation is rather scarce. This knowledge gap together with the use of aggregated spatial units in previous firm location studies result in a lack of understanding of firm...

We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile...

Option-based measures can predict underlying stock returns, due to differences in price discovery and price pressure effects between options and underlying stocks. We investigate stock return predictability by various option price-based measures using REITs. REITs are more transparent and...