This paper provides global evidence supporting the hypothesis that expected return models are enhanced by the inclusion of variables that describe the evolution of book-to-market-changes in book value, changes in price, and net share issues. This conclusion is supported using data representing...

We examine the predictability of expected stock returns across horizons using machine learning. We use neural networks, and gradient boosted regression trees on the U.S. and international equity datasets. We find that predictability of returns using neural networks models decreases with longer...

This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large - a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their...

Using Indian bank-level data, we examine the cross-sectional returns predictability for banking stocks in view of the distinct industry parameters prevalent in the financial services space. We find the existence of abnormal returns in banking stocks. We also observe that the celebrated...

Three concepts: stochastic discount factors, multi-beta pricing and mean-variance efficiency, are at the core of modern empirical asset pricing. This chapter reviews these paradigms and the relations among them, concentrating on conditional asset-pricing models where lagged variables serve as...

Researchers and practitioners employ a variety of time-series processes to forecast betas, using either short-memory models or implicitly imposing infinite memory. We find that both approaches are inadequate: beta factors show consistent long-memory properties. For the vast majority of stocks,...

We construct a global implied volatility surface by combining information from the index options of twenty countries and regions. The convexity of the global surface positively predicts equity premia around the world, in- and out-of-sample, at horizons from one to twelve months. Semi-annually,...

The risk premium of stocks due to priced variance risk is summarized to two variables -- the stock-specific price of variance risk (the difference between realized and option-implied variance) and the quantity (i.e., how stock prices respond to their variance shocks) of variance risk....

We construct mean-variance optimized currency portfolios and analyze the time- series variation of the conditional Sharpe ratio. Returns, volatility and skewness are predictable. Market timing – i.e., trading more (less) aggressively when the conditional risk-return trade-off is more (less)...