In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their … inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared … by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation …

of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

We evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile … accurate inflation forecasts. We evaluate these new forecasts in an out-of sample exercise. The new forecasts display important …

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception … measures in forecasting headline inflation. …

statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting … extreme trimmed-mean measure - the median CPI - improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and personal … consumption expenditures) across our set of monthly and quarterly BVARs. Although the inflation forecasting improvements are …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once … frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically …

Forecasting consumer prices for package holidays, which represent a major driver of the inflation rate in Germany …