Self-perception and perception by others can diverge. Such differences can play an important role in corporate governance settings, for example in the context of task allocation. We run two experiments to study how predictions about own performance and the performance of others develop over time...

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to a response scale with pre-specified ranges of inflation. In two large-scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response scale determine the responses: Shifting,...

The approach by Engelberg, Manski, and Williams (2009) to convert probabilistic survey responses into continuous probability distributions implicitly assumes that the question intervals are equally wide. Almost all recently established household surveys have intervals of varying widths. Applying...

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modifted response scales induces different answers: Shifting,...

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel...

We present the results of an experiment where a random subset of the participants in the Bundesbank's household panel receive personalized response scales, centered at each participant's point forecast. Personalized response scales offer two advantages over the standard scale which is centered...

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show that the current high-inflation environment induces...