This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian … values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In this model average we … affect any inflation forecast model. The different versions of our framework are used to model U.S. PCE deflator and GDP …

context of forecasting inflation. The RBFN model is a hybrid model whose learning process is much faster than the BPN model …

with the traditional econometric approaches to forecasting the inflation rate. Of the traditional econometric models we use …

The difficulty in modelling inflation and the significance in discovering the underlying data generating process of … inflation is expressed in an ample literature regarding inflation forecasting. In this paper we evaluate nonlinear machine … learning and econometric methodologies in forecasting the U.S. inflation based on autoregressive and structural models of the …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

We evaluate the ability of several univariate models to predict inflation in a number of countries and at several … DESARIMA models is high in stable inflation countries, for which the RMSPE is around 100 basis points when prediction is made …

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …

In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out … identify the key variables to predict inflation, thus helping to open the ML black box. Despite the evidence of no universal … of mean-squared error. Moreover, the results indicate the existence of nonlinearities in the inflation dynamics, which …

We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective … expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to … methodology allows one to examine how the pass-through varies along the probability distribution of expected inflation, which …