This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

minimizes the pitfalls associated with potential structural breaks. Exchange rate forecasting, inflation forecasting, output …

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of … Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and … SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the … quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error … inflation. The response of the HICP is strongly positive. Other factors such as raw material prices and unit labor costs also …

US inflation appears to undergo shifts in its mean level and variability. We evaluate the performance of three useful …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

We evaluate the ability of several univariate models to predict inflation in a number of countries and at several … DESARIMA models is high in stable inflation countries, for which the RMSPE is around 100 basis points when prediction is made …

persistence of U.S. inflation. We evaluate these features by comparing the out-of-sample forecast performance of two … errors depends on the level of inflation. The results of the comparison show that the parametric quantile forecasts are at … least as accurate as the semi-parametric QAR model, in particular for the core inflation measures. This leads us to conclude …