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The paper examines the volatility predictive ability of the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX), GARCH and Stochastic …. The GJR-GARCH model outperforms its competition volatility models in both oil markets. It also reveals that WTI exhibits a … Volatility Models in the crude oil market. Specifically, the dynamics of two major crude oil pricing benchmarks - Brent in Europe …
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In this paper, we study the methods of combining different volatility forecasts using various GARCH models. Given that … the major risk exposure for many investors in energy is the volatility of the electricity price, our motivation stems from … the fact that there is no single best model for forecasting such volatility. Ample evidence suggests that most of the …
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price volatility. To address this issue, we find a phenomenon, "momentum of jumps" (MoJ), that the predictive ability of the … jump component is persistent when forecasting the oil futures market volatility. Specifically, we propose a strategy that … according to their recent past forecasting performance. The volatility data are based on the intraday prices of West Texas …
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heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models to forecast oil price volatility over the time periods from January 02, 1875 to December 31, 1895 … indicate that none of our volatility models can uniformly outperform other models across all six different loss functions … outperformed by other models, with long memory GARCH-type models coming out second best. …
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correction model (VECM). Considering Italian data, the appropriate diagnostic tests and estimation results are in favour of non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014193091
Electricity price forecasting has become an area of increasing relevance in recent years. Despite the growing interest in predictive algorithms, the challenges are difficult to overcome given the restricted access to relevant data series and the lack of accurate metrics. Multiple models have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014464238