Human mortality has been improving faster than expected over the past few decades. This unprecedented improvement has … been observed in historical mortality data. In this paper, we investigate the applicability of four nonlinear time … conditional heteroskedasticity model for mortality data. By analyzing the mortality data from England and Wales and Italy spanning …

we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …