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This study extends the hybrid version of the baseline New-Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents who may adopt various forecast heuristics. With a focus on consumer expectations, we identify the most appropriate pairs of forecast heuristics that can lead to an equivalent fit to the data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942376
In this study, we analyze the macroeconomic dynamics under various shocks in two competing frameworks. Given the baseline New-Keynesian model, we compare the impulse response functions that stem from the hybrid version under rational expectations with the ones obtained in the forward-looking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942439
The notion of bounded rationality has received a considerable attention in the midst of debate over the usefulness of various macroeconomic models. In this paper we empirically seek to analyze the baseline New-Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents who may adopt various heuristics used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011635481
-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated … demand. The former learning effect, combined with the latter real-options effect, adversely affect firms' entry decisions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258487
all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to …. -- Learning ; heterogeneous expectations ; genetic algorithms ; experimental economics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
(Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2018) have shown that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894616
We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the … conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which … governs stability under least squares learning. SG algorithms are sensitive to units of measurement and we show that there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318147
(Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2017) have shown that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956452
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625