Fiscal multipliers provide a way of quantifying the GDP gain for a given (discretionary) fiscal policy intervention. I compute government consumption multipliers for New Zealand, in normal times and when monetary policy is constrained at the effective lower bound, using an estimated...

This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...

This paper analyzes two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government's finances and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few...

The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fátas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF "mea culpa" regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The...

We investigate the impact of errors in medium run tax revenue forecasts on the final budget balance. Our analysis is based on fiscal data for the entirety of German states and takes advantage of revenue forecasts and respective errors that can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting...

Budget credibility, or the ability of governments to accurately forecast macro-fiscal variables, is crucial for effective public finance management. Fiscal marksmanship analysis captures the extent of errors in the budgetary forecasting. The fiscal rules can determine fiscal marksmanship, as...

Traditional approaches use balance sheet assessment to forecast bank rescue costs and often underestimate real costs. Thus, governments commit to bailouts without credible forecasts of costs, which can lead to serious fiscal issues. We propose a new approach based on distributional information...

In an influential paper, Devries et al. (2011) construct narrative series of tax- and spending-based fiscal adjustments for a panel of OECD countries. In this paper, we find that the adjustments based on spending cuts can be predicted on the basis of past output growth and other macroeconomic...

This study focuses on examining the relationship between fiscal and debt sustainability indicators in EU Member States, based on the multidimensional approach to estimating and forecasting different time horizons applied by the European Commission. The relationship between fiscal sustainability...