Multivariate distributional forecasts have become widespread in recent years. To assess the quality of such forecasts, suitable evaluation methods are needed. In the univariate case, calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used. However, multivariate...

Demand forecasting methods usually adopt the approach of minimizing certain forms of error or maximizing a likelihood function. However, for an end user, such objective functions are often the means to achieve optimum results over various key performance indicators in respective domains. A...

Occupational accidents are a serious threat to any organization. Occupational accidents in steel industry sector remain a threat as workforce is exposed to different kinds of hazards due to the workplace characteristics. In this study, a unique method is proposed by developing a text mining...

This work presents a set of neural network (NN) models specifically designed for accurate and efficient fluid dynamics forecasting. In this work, we show how neural networks training can be improved by reducing data complexity through a modal decomposition technique called higher order dynamic...

Sub-Saharan Africa has seen steep increases in life expectancy over the past few decades, but there is sparse research into mortality modelling and forecasting for this region. Kenya's life expectancy, for example, has been increasing at a rate of 0.88 per year over the last two decades. We...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to enhance the forecasting performance of grey model and generate accurate prediction values of Chinese carbon emissions.Design/methodology/approach: A novel grey prediction model with multi-projection is designed. It adapts to the data characteristics,...

We study the expectations of individual forecasters in the foreign exchange market. We find that the survey risk premium is less countercyclical than the rational risk premium, primarily because it is not related to the forward premium. We also find that forecasters learn from their own forecast...

We open a New Keynesian Phillips curve model to nonrecurring structural shifts in its parameters and propose a novel implementation of Muth’s hypothesis to represent market participants’ inflation expectations under Knightian uncertainty arising from such shifts. We refer to our approach as...

This paper uses a new risk aversion index to investigate the predictive effect of risk aversion on oil returns under different market conditions. Moreover, we assess whether the US partisan conflict shapes the prediction of risk aversion for oil returns. Based on the quantile regressions of oil...