We consider the basic problem of refi tting a time series over a finite period of time and formulate it as a stochastic dynamic program. By changing the underlying Markov decision process we are able to obtain a model that at optimality considers historical data as well as forecasts of future...

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many countries to their knees, and the urgency to return to normalcy has never been greater. Epidemiological models, such as the SEIR compartmental model, are indispensable tools for, among other things, predicting how pandemic may spread over time and how...

Graphical models and in particular Hidden Markov Models or their continuous space equivalent, the so called Kalman filter model, are a powerful tool to make some inference that can be used in decision making contexts. The estimation of their parameters is usually based on the Expectation...