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Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...
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information. Finally, when forecasting the headline CPI, our UIG for China outperforms traditional core measures over different …
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) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial … with financial frictions outperform in forecasting inflation but not the GDP growth rate. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349997
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decades and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of Copulas to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343909
-of-sample forecasting environments. Furthermore, the predictive ability of our macro-financial measures frequently exceeds that of purely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418375
In 2016 the Central Bank of Argentina began to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing authorities with good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables is crucial for making pertinent corrections in order to reach the desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882797