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Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions

Keilman, Nico; Duin, Coen van - 2014 - This version 14 April 2014

We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354141

OLG Life Cycle Model Transition Paths : Alternate Model Forecast Method

Evans, Richard W. - 2012

The overlapping generations (OLG) model is an important framework for analyzing any type of question in which age cohorts are affected differently by exogenous shocks. However, as the dimensions and degree of heterogeneity in these models increase, the computational burden imposed by rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110566

Combination of Equilibrium Models and Hybrid Life Cycle – Input-Output Analysis to Predict the Environmental Impacts of Energy Policy Scenarios

Igos, Elorri - 2015

Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020112

Projection des familles, une vérification

Rallu, Jean-Louis - In: Le défi de l'incertitude nouvelles approches en …, (pp. 237-247). 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001517791

Near-Rational Equilibria in Heterogeneous-Agent Models : A Verification Method

Kogan, Leonid; Mitra, Indrajit - 2021

We propose a general simulation-based procedure for estimating the quality of approximate policies in heterogeneous-agent equilibrium models, which allows verification that such approximate solutions describe a near-rational equilibrium. Our procedure endows agents with superior knowledge of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048664

Analytical Prediction of Transitions Probabilities in the Conditional Logit Model

Bonin, Holger; Schneider, Hilmar - 2021

The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the model's stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319505

Forecasting labour supply and population : an integrated stochastic model

Fuchs, Johann; Söhnlein, Doris; Weber, Brigitte; … - 2017 - Aktualisierte Fassung vom 17. Mai 2017

This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586534

A principal component simulation of age-specific fertility : impacts of family and social policy on reproductive behavior in Germany

Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp - 2018

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247

The impact of population aging on the German statutory pension insurance : a probabilistic approach

Vanella, Patrizio; Gonzalez, Miguel Rodriguez; Wilke, … - 2021

decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. To …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599101

Forecasting the old-age dependency ratio to determine a sustainable pension age

Hyndman, Rob J.; Zeng, Yijun; Shang, Han Lin - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610521

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