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Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions

Keilman, Nico; Duin, Coen van - 2014 - This version 14 April 2014

We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354141

OLG Life Cycle Model Transition Paths : Alternate Model Forecast Method

Evans, Richard W. - 2012

The overlapping generations (OLG) model is an important framework for analyzing any type of question in which age cohorts are affected differently by exogenous shocks. However, as the dimensions and degree of heterogeneity in these models increase, the computational burden imposed by rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110566

Forecasting the world economy using dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium multi-country models

McKibbin, Warwick J. (contributor) - 1998 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001510413

Projection des familles, une vérification

Rallu, Jean-Louis - In: Le défi de l'incertitude nouvelles approches en …, (pp. 237-247). 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001517791

Intrahousehold Resource Allocation and Individual Poverty : Assessing Collective Model Predictions Against Direct Evidence on Sharing

Bargain, Olivier; Lacroix, Guy; Tiberti, Luca - 2023

expenditures of each family member. We also test the core assumption (efficiency) and homogeneity assumptions used for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254963

Analytical Prediction of Transitions Probabilities in the Conditional Logit Model

Bonin, Holger; Schneider, Hilmar - 2021

The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the model's stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319505

Forecasting labour supply and population : an integrated stochastic model

Fuchs, Johann; Söhnlein, Doris; Weber, Brigitte; … - 2017 - Aktualisierte Fassung vom 17. Mai 2017

This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586534

A principal component simulation of age-specific fertility : impacts of family and social policy on reproductive behavior in Germany

Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp - 2018

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247

Indeterminacy, economic fluctuations, bubbles and empirical sunspots

Aguiar-Conraria, Luís - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003904187

Income growth in the 21st century : Forecasts with an overlapping generations model

De la Croix, David; Docquier, Frédßeric; Liégeois, … - In: International journal of forecasting 23 (2007) 4, pp. 621-635

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003616075

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