German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed...

This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy...