For many years, Business Tendency Surveys on the basis of mailing suffer from an erosion of the response rate. To counter this problem, there are traditional methods as limitation of the number of questions, improvement of the design of the questionnaire, intensified recalls by mail or...

Do firms learn to forecast future business conditions after major structural changes to the economy? How long does it take? We exploit German Reunification as a natural experiment, where firms in the East are treated with ignorance about the distribution of market states, to test a Bayesian...

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their...

Using a forecasting framework, this analysis illustrates how enterprise spending on Cloud Services will expand US GDP, jobs and technology spending. The preliminary forecast predicts the US economy will gain nearly 3 trillion Dollars in GDP and 8 Million new Jobs from 2015 to 2025. This suggests...

We study the association of startup firm spending with firm survival. We propose that spending per employee (the “normalized burn rate”) captures entrepreneur's ability to avoid failure better than total spending (the popular “burn rate”). We derive an analytical model to describe how...

Firms whose quarterly earning announcements closely meet the most recent analyst consensus forecast enjoy higher long-lasting future returns. These firms tend to be larger and are followed by more analysts, whose forecasts have a smaller dispersion. While the proportion of past quarters when...

Previous research finds that EPS growth is difficult to predict and reasons that much of the observed variation in valuation multiples is due to mispricing (e.g., Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny, 1994; Chan, Karceski, and Lakonishok, 2003; Israel, Laursen, and Richardson, 2021). We revisit these...