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Calculating government consumption multipliers in New Zealand using an estimated DSGE model

Binning, Andrew - 2024

compute government consumption multipliers for New Zealand, in normal times and when monetary policy is constrained at the … environments that lead to larger government consumption multipliers. I find that estimated government consumption multipliers are … determined by both economic conditions and the central bank's reaction function. This implies increases in government consumption …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014533165

Fiscal Sustainability and Fiscal Risk in the EU : Forecasts and Challenges in Terms of COVID-19

Zahariev, Andrey; Radulova, Aneliya; Aleksandrova, … - 2021

This study focuses on examining the relationship between fiscal and debt sustainability indicators in EU Member States, based on the multidimensional approach to estimating and forecasting different time horizons applied by the European Commission. The relationship between fiscal sustainability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232586

Predicting Inflation : Portfolio Erosion or Collapse?

Crawford, George - 2012

What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even the 2% level to which we are accustomed will cut an investor's portfolio by over 17% during a decade. This 2% level is the target of the Federal Reserve, along with near 0%...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099903

Predicting Fiscal Crises

Cerovic, Svetlana - 2018

This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912485

Model uncertainty in macroeconomics : on the implications of financial frictions

Lieberknecht, Philipp; Binder, Michael; Quintana, Jorge; … - In: Essays on macroeconomic policies and financial frictions, (pp. 7-71). 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013190541

The impact of forecast errors on fiscal planning and debt accumulation

Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2019

We investigate the impact of errors in medium run tax revenue forecasts on the final budget balance. Our analysis is based on fiscal data for the entirety of German states and takes advantage of revenue forecasts and respective errors that can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011998792

Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal : an approach based on U.S. real-time data

Cimadomo, Jacopo; Hauptmeier, Sebastian; Sola, Sergio - 2011

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009238019

Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal : an approach based on U.S. real-time data

Cimadomo, Jacopo; Hauptmeier, Sebastian; Sola, Sergio - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009238567

Fiscal policy and growth forecasts in the EU : are official forecasters still misestimating fiscal multipliers?

Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran - 2020

Blanchard and Leigh (2013, 2014) find fiscal multipliers to be underestimated in the EU in the deep recession of the early 2010s. Using two 2013-2018 datasets for 26 EU member states, assembled from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, we show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307864

Budget Credibility of Subnational Governments : Analyzing the Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India

Chakraborty, Lekha - 2020

Budget credibility, or the ability of governments to accurately forecast macro-fiscal variables, is crucial for effective public finance management. Fiscal marksmanship analysis captures the extent of errors in the budgetary forecasting. The fiscal rules can determine fiscal marksmanship, as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827169

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