in time through the posterior probability. Our findings show that (1) DMA improves forecasts compared to other frameworks … posteriori-Wahrscheinlichkeit, welche Prädiktoren zu verschiedenen Zeitpunkten für die Prognose relevant waren. Unsere Ergebnisse … zeigen, dass (1) DMA die Prognose im Vergleich zu anderen Verfahren verbessert und (2) dass die Goldpreisprädiktoren sich …

forecast levels. A country's proximity to the US, importance to the firm, and visibility, as well as availability of more … precise information about foreign country exposures, contribute to consensus forecast efficiency. We identify a dimension of … — and show that it contributes to forecast efficiency, accuracy, and informativeness and that it helps the analyst achieve …

election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don … incentives to acquire information about the outcome, thus tend to have better forecasts. Moreover, their trades have larger …

yield curve forecasts while explaining the stylized facts of the term structure of interest rates. It is flexible enough to …-, and 12-month out-of-sample forecasts with statistical significance at 1, 3, and 6 months. Interestingly, it prefers the …, some relevant hyperparameters need to vary with the forecast horizon rather than uniformly in order to improve forecasting …

decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies … that more basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability …

valuation. In our empirical application, we use 𝑄 to relate analyst forecasts to stock returns and measure the profitability of … investment strategies that rely on information in analyst earnings-per-share forecasts and stock prices. Over a time period of …-financing trading strategies yield annualized Fama and French five-factor alphas of up %-|-|-|. These strategies clearly outperform …

components: earnings forecasts, target prices, and buy/sell recommendations. An important question for investment managers is … then, how accurate are the forecasts of fundamental analysts? In this research, we tackle this question by investigating a … total of 43 086 analyst forecasts made on South African equities over the 15-year period from January 2004 to June 2018.We …

ability to forecast stock prices. We show that these persistent differences in accuracy are driven instead by stock return … volatility. Building upon option pricing theory, we construct a measure of forecast quality that controls for stock return … volatility and forecast horizon. Contrary to previous studies, which failed to properly account for differences in stock return …