Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) have brought attention to forecasting the labor market using the bathtub model. In addition Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) have made substantial advances to the spillover literature by introducing connectedness tables and plots. We blend the two works to answer two...

In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows. Our results indicate that Bayesian vector...