We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial … pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic … slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse open …

and forecast inflation out-of-sample by analyzing a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. In …Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource … utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics …

The main aim of this paper is to provide forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania, bringing … methodological novelties in the construction and evaluation of the prediction intervals. Considering the period 2004-2017 as forecast … information has been used, the forecast intervals were very short. The proposed Bayesian technique for assessing prediction …

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional …