forecast future exchange rate movements, following the idea in Engel, Mark, and West (2015). Instead of using the standard …

2004 to 2012, we find strong evidence that the forecasts for developing countries are biased at all forecast horizons. For … increases again at the 24-month horizon. Based on the magnitude of the forecast errors and the direction of change, long … forecast horizon …

forecast dispersion is positively associated with future currency returns. Portfolios built from analyst forecasts tend to …

estimates. We formally test the forecast performance of pooled vs. heterogeneous estimators over a hold-back period and find …

directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional … forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean …

external demand forecast faster than is currently possible. The external demand forecast helps to forecast exports and, through … of international institutions as a starting point. Data received in the meantime can be included in the forecast using … expert judgements. With the method described in this paper, we forecast the imports of Hungary's key trading partners - and …