Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...

The term globalisation has gained widespread popularity; yet most treatments are either descriptive and/or focused on changes in economic interconnectivity. This book brings together leading international experts from a range of disciplines to develop a long-term analysis to address the problems...