expectations. We find that people are constantly uncertain about their unemployment prospects. The uncertainty causes them to …We study how individual unemployment expectations are shaped and updated using a unique longitudinal survey data set … with subjective unemployment expectations. The survey data is linked with third-party reported administrative data on …

unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and …We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are … time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside …

We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty -- approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey … on macroeconomic indicators and expectation uncertainty. Measures of macroeconomic uncertainty improve the ex ante …

Empirical study of causality between inflation, inflation uncertainty and other macroeconomicy quantities. Additionally …, the issue of how to measure the unobservable inflation uncertainty is addressed. …