We compare the predictive performance in forecasting the onset of large scale political violence worldwide of five statistical models and three commonly used fragility/instability indices using PITF and UCDP data for the period 2000-2015. We find that the models typically outperform the rankings...

We study the effect of terrorist attacks on the disclosure policies of local firms. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of the attacks are more likely to issue optimistic earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The...