uncertainty evolves in the supply chain. This paper proposes a new metric to serve this purpose, which overcomes many of the … limitations of the Bullwhip Ratio: the Ratio of Forecast Uncertainty, which benchmarks the upstream Mean Squared Errors of … simulation is deployed. Our results indicate that this metric bears a connection to inventory costs at upstream level, and holds …

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of … major drawback that it is constant over time and hence does not convey any information on the specific source of uncertainty … the uncertainty around the model’s parameters and the structural errors term to construct asymmetric confidence bands …