We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 …) the utility factor with a stochastic version of cumulative prospect theory (logit-CPT), and (b) the attraction factor with … choices between two lotteries (two "prospects") presented in 91 random pairs made by 142 subjects offered at two separated …

Prospect Theory (CPT), Expected Utility Theory (EUT), Rank Dependent expected Utility (RDU) and mean-variance have poor out …-of-sample predictability. To accurately predict risk, we develop Geometric Dispersion Theory (GDT), which is based on two asymmetric simple …Out-of-sample prediction is the ultimate validity test of risk models for which theoretical appeal and justifications …

We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors … characteristics, past gambling behavior, eye-movements, and various psychophysiological measures that are recorded during the first … effectively be used to forecast risky gambling decisions; however, we find large differences among models’ forecasting …

A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An …