Two popular inflation indicators commonly monitored by analysts are the pace of real economic activity and the rate of … of growth of labor costs exceeds the trend rate in labor productivity, then inflation will accelerate. These beliefs … derive from the “price markup hypothesis” implicit in the Phillips curve view of the inflation process. This view assumes …

inflation’s total variation in Mexico. In this context, we study the performance of seasonal time series models to forecast …Since the adoption of inflation targeting, the seasonal appears to be the component that explains the major part of … short-run inflation. Using multi-horizon evaluation techniques, we examine the real-time forecasting performance of four …

In this paper we apply a dynamic factor model to generate out of sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. We … disaggregated data to forecast inflation. Our data set contains 54 macroeconomic series and 243 CPI subcomponents from 1988 to 2008 … key variables in the economy such as output growth and inflation. -- Factor models ; Inflation forecasting ; Disaggregate …