This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the … likelihood and two different Bayesian approaches, and traditional benchmark models, e.g. the random walk. The accuracy of point … present. We also critically examine the role of Bayesian model probabilities and other frequently used low …

We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile …