Facing several economic and financial uncertainties, assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is often considered...

This paper presents new evidence on international financial market integration using stock analyst earnings forecasts from around the world. By examining cash flow and discount rate news comovements, we find that financial and economic integration has diverged over time as financial integration...

Mit der Etablierung von Wahlbörsen zur Prognose späterer Wahlergebnisse entstand eine Vielzahl von Anwendungsfeldern für virtuelle Informationsbörsen als neues Instrument der Marktforschung. Die besonders betonte prognostische Qualität des Verfahrens und die entgegengebrachte...

In asset pricing, estimation risk refers to investor uncertainty about the parameters of the return or cashflow process. We show that with estimation risk the observable properties of prices and returns can differ significantly from the properties perceived by rational investors. In particular,...