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-linearity, and multiple seasonality or time-varying correlations. Our study indicates that the joint dual long-memory process can … conditional volatility and strongly support the estimation of dynamic returns that allow for time-varying correlations. A …
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An examination of the Shiller cyclically adjusted pricing-earnings (CAPE) ratio reveals its forecasting power for 12-month CRSP equally weighted (EW) excess returns and value weighted (VW) excess returns. The 12-month EW excess returns following low CAPE ratios are, on average, 20.7% higher than...
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Mots-clés de l'auteur: Return Predictability ; Return Seasonality ; Asset Pricing Anomalies ; Intraday Returns …
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Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....
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