The method of forecast output coincidence used to determine if sectors are demandsided or supply-sided in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply side models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The...

Using a forecasting framework, this analysis illustrates how enterprise spending on Cloud Services will expand US GDP, jobs and technology spending. The preliminary forecast predicts the US economy will gain nearly 3 trillion Dollars in GDP and 8 Million new Jobs from 2015 to 2025. This suggests...

This paper investigates the role of industry-specific effects and structural properties of intersectoral customer-supplier relations on the corporate default prediction of individual firms. We focus on a large sample of US exchange-listed companies over the period 1997- 2015 and show that...

This paper shows that a production network facilitates expectations-driven business cycles. Through input-output linkages, changes in expected demand can cause business-cycle fluctuations and endogenous movements in the Solow residual. When inputs must be purchased one period in advance,...

We examine how the patterns of inter-industry trade flows impact the transfer of information and economic shocks. We provide evidence that the intensity of transfers depends on industries' positions within the economy. In particular, some industries occupy central positions in the flow of trade,...

Stock markets proved to be statistically predictable on an economically interesting scale over the past decade by fully data driven automatically constructed maps that associate to a set of new factor values a return prediction that is the average of historically observed returns for an area in...

The paper proposes a novel theory-based approach to economic growth prediction. In the economy populated with economically independent decision-makers, the information about their individual preferences, available technologies, and resource constraints is embedded in decision-makers' opportunity...

Fairfield and Yohn (2001) show that disaggregating change in return on assets into change in asset turnover and change in profit margin helps in predicting future profitability. For oil and gas firms, we disaggregate return on assets in the same manner and also use data envelopment analysis...

Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely...

Increasing the complexity of the foreign exchange market as the world's largest financial market, has led to a lot of instability and noise in exchange rate series as a result of a considerable increase in speculator participants. The exchange rate forecast will be disturbed by this great noise....