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weather forecasts. Consistent with the theory, we find that, ceteris paribus, good weather forecasts are associated to higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012120601
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792
We develop a novel methodology to quantify forecasts based on qualitative survey data. The methodology is generally applicable when quantitative information is available on the realization of the forecasted variable, for example from firm balance sheets. The method can be applied to a wide range...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014502459
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012521320
Due to the complexity of tax and the time and resources needed to monitor and examine tax returns, tax noncompliance is challenging to detect. Big data and sophisticated analytics might help tax authorities extract actionable data insights. Using income tax record data, this paper employs an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013492311
This paper analyzes how firm-specific uncertainty affects firms’ propensity to invest. We measure firm-specific uncertainty as firms’ absolute forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011. In line with the literature, our empirical findings reveal a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445660
Using a novel data set that combines firms' qualitative survey-based sales forecasts with their quantitative balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors (those in the two tails of the distribution) are predictable and display auto-correlation. This result is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830815
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839767
This paper analyses how firm-specific forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011 affect firms’ investment propensity. Understanding how forecast errors affect firm investment behaviour is key to mitigate economic downturns during and after crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012203080
weights in the estimation and find that weighting has a large impact on variable selection and predictions and, generally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013337991