We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … with country-specific export compositions. A larger share in raw material or oil exports worsens the accuracy of soft … indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast accuracy. …

hierarchically by export destination and product category. We apply existing state of the art methods in forecast reconciliation and …

-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated … informed. Moreover, young firms tend to wait long before entering or exiting the market faced with high uncertainty about their …' post-entry dynamics and aggregate productivity. …