In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area … usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth. In line with previous Bank studies, the … results suggest that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) is among the best-performing indicators to forecast real GDP growth …

capital. A central result is a pronounced projected decrease in human capital, substantially weighing on the long-run GDP …

to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a … probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed …

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a … bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into … aggregate individual countries' densities into a world aggregate while preserving the non-i.i.d. nature of the global GDP growth …

Beyond GDP, which is measured using expenditure data, the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) provide an … income-based measure of the economy (gross domestic income, or GDI), a measure that averages GDP and GDI, and various … aggregates that include combinations of GDP components. This paper compiles real-time data on a variety of NIPA aggregates and …

indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … prior to GDP release and track the release days of the indicators so as to only use information which is actually available … GDP growth, and which indicator releases have less predictive content. …