Showing 1 - 10 of 10,497
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313751
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area … usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth. In line with previous Bank studies, the … results suggest that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) is among the best-performing indicators to forecast real GDP growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403330
This paper backtests a nowcast of Japan's real GDP growth. Its distinguishing features are use of genuine real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834028
We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflation using a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089933
We use TVP models and real-time data to describe the evolution of the leading properties of the yield spread for output growth in five European economies and in the US over the last decades and until the third quarter of 2010. We evaluate the predictive performance of benchmark term-structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134715
Common sense tells that historical data are more informative for the estimation of today's nowcasting models when … observed in a similar economic state as today. We operationalise this intuition by proposing a state-based weighted estimation … procedure of GDP nowcasting models, in which observations are weighted based on the similarity with the current economic state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014450791
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010194390
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013474017
the estimation approach. A real-time application to the relationship between daily corporate bond spreads and quarterly … GDP growth in the Euro area shows that the leading indicator property of the spreads ahead of GDP has diminished during … the recent crisis. During that period, corporate bond spreads rather seem to be coincident indicators of GDP growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481353
to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a … probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009690941