Order flow imbalance refers to the difference between market buy and sell orders during a given period. This paper is the first study to examine effects of order flow imbalance on returns of stocks traded on the German Xetra trading system on a daily basis. In contrast to previous studies on...

Betting quotes provide valuable information on market-implied probabilities for outcomes of events like elections or referendums, which may have an impact on exchange rates. We generate exchange rate forecasts around such events based on a model that combines risk-neutral event probabilities...