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What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
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Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
laboratory experiment in which the participants act as forecasters and are asked to predict the next realisation of iid random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999
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Predicting and Understanding Initial Play
Fudenberg, Drew - 2019
We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561
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Financial uncertainty, risk aversion and monetary policy
Inekwe, Nkwoma John - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 51 (2016) 3, pp. 939-961
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554354
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Dynamic asset allocation with ambiguous return predictability
Chen, Hui; Ju, Nengjiu; Miao, Jianjun - In: Review of economic dynamics 17 (2014) 4, pp. 799-823
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281431
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Risk averse retail pricing with robust demand forecasting
Ferrer, Juan-Carlos; Oyarzún, Diego; Vera, Jorge - In: International journal of production economics 136 (2012) 1, pp. 151-160
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009503669
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Ambiguity, long-run risks, and asset prices
Wei, Bin - 2021
I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667
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Fear, overconfidence, and fundamental uncertainty shocks
Ambrocio, Gene - In: Applied economics letters 28 (2021) 9, pp. 760-764
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012501609
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The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks
Garagnani, Michele - 2020
This work reports an online experiment with a general-population sample examining the performance of budget …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292131
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Risks of observable and unobservable biases in artificial intelligence predicting consumer choice
Teleaba, Florian; Popescu, Sorin; Olaru, Marieta; … - In: Amfiteatru economic : an economic and business research … 23 (2021) 56, pp. 102-119
Companies are increasingly adopting Artificial Intelligence (AI) today. Recently however debates started over the risk of human cognitive biases being replicated (and scaled) by AI. Research on biases in AI predicting consumer choice is incipient and focuses on observable biases. We provide a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012821258