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A machine learning projection method for macro-finance models
Valaitis, Vytautas; Villa, Alessandro T. - 2022
This paper develops a simulation-based solution method to solve large state space macrofinance models using machine learning. We use a neural network (NN) to approximate the expectations in the optimality conditions in the spirit of the stochastic parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013202712
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A machine learning projection method for macro-finance models
Valaitis, Vytautas; Villa, Alessandro T. - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 15 (2024) 1, pp. 145-173
We use supervised machine learning to approximate the expectations typically contained in the optimality conditions of an economic model in the spirit of the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA) with stochastic simulation. When the set of state variables is generated by a stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496944
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Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors
Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2020
In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845239
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Labor market imperfections and selective separability in household models : a predictive typology of Mexican Ejidatarios
Sadoulet, Elisabeth; De Janvry, Alain; Benjamin, Catherine - 1996
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000946209
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Advance Layoff Notices and Labor Market Forecasting
Krolikowski, Pawel Michal - 2020
We collect rich establishment-level data about advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act since January 1990. We present in-sample evidence that the number of workers affected by WARN notices leads state-level initial unemployment insurance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842419
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Forecasting unemployment in Finland : a flow approach
Lindblad, Annika; Gäddnäs, Niklas - 2024
In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows. Our results indicate that Bayesian vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014574000
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Nowcasting Employment in the Euro Area
Banbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354741
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Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function
Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - 2014
labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the … findings can be improved by a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function. For this purpose, we construct so … der Prognosegüte der Matching-Funktion. Theoretisch sinkt die Matchingeffizienz mit höherem Mismatch, wodurch das Risiko …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401765
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Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts
Bluedorn, John C. - 2019
We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467
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Prediction Algorithms in Matching Platforms
Hamalainen, Saara; Petrikaite, Vaiva - 2023
We provide a general framework to consider the effects of algorithmic demand and supply prediction in matching … matching platforms by facilitating more flexible wage setting and pricing. The effects on labor welfare and consumer surplus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350609