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A money-based indicator for deflation risk
Amisano, Gianni; Colavecchio, Roberta; Fagan, Gabriel - 2014
We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425719
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Money growth and inflation : evidence from a Markov Switching Bayesian VAR
Amisano, Gianni; Colavecchio, Roberta - 2013
UK, the Euro area and Japan, over an estimation period spanning from 1960 to 2012. We find that the relationship between … money growth and inflation appears to be nonlinear, as our estimation results identify multiple inflation regimes displaying …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425829
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On economic evaluation of directional forecasts
Blaskowitz, Oliver; Herwartz, Helmut - 2009
It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003893151
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The role of log transformation in forecasting economic variables
Lütkepohl, Helmut; Fang, Xu - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003900236
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Asymmetry and long memory in volatility modeling
Asai, Manabu; McAleer, Michael; Medeiros, Marcelo C. - In: Journal of financial econometrics : official journal of … 10 (2012) 3, pp. 495-512
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009571512
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An empirical analysis for the prediction of a financial crisis in Turkey through the use of forecast error measures
Cavdar, Seyma Caliskan; Aydin, Alev Dilek - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 8 (2015) 3, pp. 337-354
In this study, we try to examine whether the forecast errors obtained by the ANN models affect the breakout of financial crises. Additionally, we try to investigate how much the asymmetric information and forecast errors are reflected on the output values. In our study, we used the exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011545129
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Window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters
Inoue, Atsushi; Lu, Jin; Rossi, Barbara - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010416755
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Window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters
Inoue, Atsushi; Lu, Jin; Rossi, Barbara - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010424812
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Incorporating prediction and estimation risk in point-in-time credit portfolio models
Hamerle, Alfred; Knapp, Michael; Liebig, Thilo; … - 2005
In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk … parameters for the estimation of probability of default or asset correlation are not available, and usually have to be estimated … using historical data. The incorporation of prediction and estimation risk generally leads to broader loss distributions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003209701
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Non-linear dynamics and predictable forecast errors : an application to the OECD forecasts for Germany
Antzulatos, Angelos A. (contributor);  … - 2003
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001756414