This paper documents a dual role for disclosure. In addition to the traditional role of alleviating information asymmetry, firms are motivated to disclose to attract limited investor resources and order flow away from other firms (Fishman and Hagerty, 1989). Higher competition for investors...

We take up Cochrane's (2011) challenge to identify the firm characteristics that provide independent information about average U.S. monthly stock returns by simultaneously including 94 characteristics in Fama-MacBeth regressions that avoid overweighting microcaps and adjust for data snooping...

After the financial crisis of 2008–2009, accounting research has placed considerable focus on developing new methods for analyzing forward-looking narrative statements in corporate disclosures. This paper uses Toulmin's (1958/2003) Claim-Data-Warrant argumentation scheme to develop a unique...

We address whether analysts bias earnings forecast revisions and convey the bias using forecast revision consistency, i.e., the extent to which analyst reports with earnings forecast revisions include stock recommendation and target price revisions consistent in sign with the earnings forecast...

The accurate forecast of the foreign currencies exchange rates at the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets is a main topic of our research: 1) the present state of the foreign currencies exchange markets in Asia, Europe and North America; 2) the...

This note shows that non-U.S. yield curves contain information about future U.S. recessions and economic activity. Using quarterly data from 1979-2021, a foreign term spread constructed from the bond yields of G-7 constituents is included in regressions of U.S. recession risk and U.S. real GDP...

Using a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to variable ordering, we propose measures of both total and directional volatility spillovers. We use our methods to characterize daily volatility spillovers across U.S. stock, bond,...

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the...

We examine whether current-period stock prices influence analysts' earnings forecasts. Using an experiment with financial analysts, we find that analysts updating their earnings forecasts in response to a management earnings forecast provide different forecasts depending on the stock price...

This paper examines how the level of disaggregation in earnings forecasts influences investors' reactions to earnings surprises. Previous research finds that investors respond more favorably to a disaggregated forecast than to an aggregated one immediately after the forecast. However, given that...