This paper builds on the recent debate on the in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of US aggregate returns using a wide range of predictors by providing new evidence for smaller and less market-oriented European countries. We find evidence that macro and technical predictors can...

In this paper, we study the Tradesports contracts targeted to the American football outcomes during NFL 2005-2006 regular season. By testing the distribution of actual games' points and the market prices of the contracts, running the regressions of the market prices on the actual outcomes, and...

We investigate the cross-sectional pattern of stock returns for eight emerging markets using Vector Autoregressive Approach (VAR) to test whether dividend yields can predict stock returns through impulse response characteristics. Our results confirm that dividend yield shocks play an important...

Using a sample from 22 countries, I investigate the relations between the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts and the level of annual report disclosure; and between forecast accuracy and the degree of enforcement of accounting standards. I document that firm-level disclosures are positively...

Existing research indicates that it is possible to forecast potential long-term returns in the S&P 500 for periods of more than 10 years using the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE). This paper concludes that this relationship has also existed internationally in 17 MSCI Country...

This paper provides strong evidence of time-varying return predictability of three precious metals from January 1987 to September 2014. We use three variations of the variance ratio test, the nonlinear BDS test as well as the Hurst exponent to evaluate the time-varying return predictability of...

Warren Buffett suggested that the ratio of the market value of all publicly traded stocks to the Gross National Product could identify potential overvaluations and undervaluations in the US equity market. We investigate whether this ratio is a statistically significant predictor of equity market...

I apply Wang's (2012) earnings forecasting framework to examine if the lower persistence of accruals in an unrestricted model of earnings dynamics (UM) implies the superiority of a restricted model (RM). In particular, I specify reported earnings in terms of respective expected earnings of UM...

This study presents international evidence on the dividend month premium. In the US, Hartzmark and Solomon (2013) find abnormally high returns during the months when stocks are predicted to pay a dividend. We test for this predicted dividend month premium in eleven developed markets, including...