Inflation is one of key policy variables in the European Union. Keeping inflation below 2 percent is the main … proclaimed goal of the European Central Bank. Monitoring inflation dynamics is even more important for the EU candidate countries … a hyperinflation period at the first phase of transition, inflation awareness seems to be even more relevant than in …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. -- Inflation forecasting ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; information …

This note studies the causal relationship that may exist between the producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price … on the PPI seems to be useful to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. In particular, CPI inflation responds significantly …

theoretical predictions and simulations are corroborated when forecasting aggregate US inflation pre- and post 1984 using … disaggregate sectoral data. - Aggregate forecasts ; disaggregate information ; forecast combination ; inflation …

switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

minimizes the pitfalls associated with potential structural breaks. Exchange rate forecasting, inflation forecasting, output …

This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal … federal funds rate. Only for inflation the model forecasts are dominated by the Greenbook projections. A comparison with …

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area …, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation … estimate the model with data from the early 1970s up to the present. Our analysis suggests that the risks of a Low inflation …