We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once … frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically …

Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …

real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … equation of exchange of the quantity theory of money, the real interest rate gap, and two versions of the model. Since none of …

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

​We apply several tests to the underlying inflation metrics used in practice by central banks and/or proposed in the … measure of underlying inflation, indicators calculated on the basis of dynamic factor models are generally among the best …