and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a … new shock process where the shock loads on wedges associated with the model's usual shocks. Realizations of the Covid … shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic …

, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …

, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Countryby-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …

constructs a measure of a forecast error shock for the Federal Reserve based on the assumption that the Fed follows a forward … treat the Fed's forecast errors as a shock, analogous to a monetary policy shock. Our shock, however, is different in that … Romer (2004) and investigate the effect of the forecast error shock on output and price movements. Our results suggest that …

forecasts of inflation and output growth …