Wheat price forecasts are very important for traders, farmers and politicians as well. However, only quite accurate price predictions can guide these groups towards making the best decisions. Therefore the well-known wheat price projections of both the OECD and the FAPRI from 1996 on are tested...

This study investigates empirical methods of generating prediction intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices over the 1980/81 through 2006/07 marketing years. Empirical methods use historical forecast errors to estimate forecast error distributions, which are then used to...

Price forecasts are critical to market participants when making production and marketing decisions and to policymakers who administer commodity programs and assess the market impact of domestic or international events. With the exceptionally volatile conditions experienced in the corn market...

From 1977 through April 2019, USDA published monthly season-average price (SAP) forecasts for key agricultural commodities in the form of intervals meant to indicate forecasters' uncertainty — but without attaching a confidence level. In May 2019, USDA eliminated the intervals and began...

Short-term forecasting is usually made in recent literature by modeling the spot price of commodities such as coffee and cattle with ARIMA models and in some articles including volatility models. Unlike such articles, herein the models of the spot price of coffee and cattle are estimated...

From 1977 through April 2019, USDA published monthly season-average price (SAP) forecasts for key agricultural commodities in the form of intervals meant to indicate forecasters' uncertainty, but without attaching a confidence level. In May 2019, USDA eliminated the intervals and began...

National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for...

Problem: How to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems. Methods: Findings from our review of forecasting experiments were used to identify methods and principles that lead...

The statistical forecasting efficiency of new crop corn and soybean futures is the topic of frequent academic inquiry. However, few studies address the usefulness of these forecasts to economic agents? decision making. Each year Central Illinois producers are faced with the decision to plant...