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Timing of Predictions in Dynamic Cheap Talk : Experts vs. Quacks
Smirnov, Aleksei - 2019
of privately known competence, who cares about his reputation, chooses the timing of the forecast regarding the outcome …. Further, any report hurts the forecaster's reputation in the short run, with later reports incurring larger penalties. The … reputation of a silent forecaster, on the other hand, gradually improves over time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859563
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Consideration of Reputation Prediction of Ladygaga Using the Mathematical Model of Hit Phenomena
Yasuko, Kawahata; Etsuo, Genda; Akira, Ishii - 2021
A mathematical model for the hit phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of interactions of human dynamics. The calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on to the mathematical model agree very well with the actual residue distribution in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237633
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A mixed opinion-based reputation prediction approach for reliable web service discovery
Rathore, Maya; Suman, Ugrasen - In: International journal of business information systems : … 22 (2016) 2, pp. 143-165
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011610175
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The El Farol problem revisited
Böhm, Volker - 2015
The so-called El Farol problem describes a prototypical situation of interacting agents making binary choices to participate in a non-cooperative environment or to stay by themselves and choosing an outside option. In a much cited paper Arthur (1994) argues that persistent on-converging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010487597
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Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments
Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008
Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
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A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2014
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490362
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014 - This version: December 3, 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011492072
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Noisy information and fundamental disagreement
Andrade, Philippe; Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; … - 2013
We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222893
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Traders, Forecasters and Financial Instability : A Model of Individual Learning of Anchor-and-Adjustment Heuristics
Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2019
Behavioral and experimental literature on financial instability focuses on either subjective price expectations (Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2018) have shown that subjects have problems with both tasks. In this paper, I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894616