The purpose of this paper is to analyse the predictability of earnings information before the quarterly disclosure date. Two categories of firms are contrasted: the firms that announce better quarterly earnings than the prior period and the firms that do not. The paper uses a sample of 67...

We present evidence of investors underreacting to the absence of events in financial markets. Routine-based insiders strategically choose to be silent when they possess private information not yet reflected in stock prices. Consistent with our hypothesis, insider silence following routine sell...

I examine the relationship between aggregate news sentiment, S&P 500 Index returns, and changes in the implied volatility index (VIX). I find a significant negative contemporaneous relationship between changes in VIX and both news sentiment and stock returns. This relationship is asymmetric...

We provide evidence that equity investors with limited attention are slow to incorporate how current oil price changes affect future earnings announcements. A cross-sectional equity trading strategy that exploits this inefficiency yields an annualized Sharpe Ratio of 0.57. Stock prices respond...

Using a large dataset of news releases, we study instances of investors' mistaken reaction, or misreaction, to news. We define misreaction as stock prices moving in the direction opposite to the news when it is released. We find that news tone predicts returns in the cross-section only upon the...

This paper uses a dataset of more than 900,000 news stories to test whether news predicts stock returns. We measure sentiment with the Harvard psychosocial dictionary used by Tetlock, Saar-Tsechansky, and Macskassy (2008), the financial dictionary of Loughran and McDonald (2011), and a...

This paper uses a dataset of more than 900,000 news stories to test whether news can predict stock returns. We measure sentiment with a proprietary Thomson-Reuters neural network. We find that daily news predicts stock returns for only 1 to 2 days, confirming previous research. Weekly news,...

I hypothesize that the stock market overreacts to management earnings forecasts because of the uncertainty surrounding them. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a –5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1.9% correction in the 2-month period after earnings are...

The literature argues that news coverage predicts future stock returns because it drives attention flows through a behavioral channel. We show that the behavioral channel only accounts for half of the predictive power. The other half is explained by a novel rational channel that posits that...

Previous research finds that historical seasonal earnings rank negatively predicts stock returns surrounding earnings announcements (EAs) in China’s A-share markets. We examine whether management earnings forecasts (MEFs) help reduce the stock return seasonality associated with earnings...