This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation...

We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a Dynamic Factor Model on a dataset of 11 indicators (also followed closely by market operators) over the time period 2002 to 2014. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators...

In this paper we investigate whether accounting for non-pervasive shocks improves the forecast of a factor model. We compare four models on a large panel of US quarterly data: factor models, factor models estimated on selected variables, Bayesian shrinkage, and factor models together with...

In this paper we propose to exploit the heterogeneity of forecasts produced by different model specifications to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive.It consists in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then to construct an empirical...