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demand. The former learning effect, combined with the latter real-options effect, adversely affect firms' entry decisions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258487
The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the … macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the … sentiment, defined as the degrees of excess optimism and pessimism that cannot be justified by the near-rational learning model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634
Increasing retirement ages in an automatic or scheduled way with increasing life expectancy at retirement is a popular pension policy response to continuous longevity improvements. The question addressed here is: to what extent is simply adopting this approach likely to fulfill the overall goals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012597036
research has not examined whether individual differences in insular sensitivity predict learning to avoid aversive stimuli. In … that in addition to correlating with self-reported anxiety, heightened insular sensitivity may promote learning to avoid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014191063
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013415323
Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015374544
(Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2018) have shown that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894616
We explore the consequence of learning to forecast in a very simple environment. Agents have bounded memory and … incorrectly believe that there is nonlinear structure underlying the aggregate time series dynamics. Under social learning with … variable learning equilibrium as well as a weaker long run consistency condition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014067379
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to …. -- Learning ; heterogeneous expectations ; genetic algorithms ; experimental economics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257