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box office receipts. Recent research suggests prediction markets are robust to manipulation attacks and resulting market …
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This paper analyses the performance of GDP growth and inflation forecasts for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2007, as provided by 13 international institutions, including multilateral, private and academic forecasters. The empirical results show that there is a positive correlation...
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This paper provides a full characterization of inflation rate forecasts using the mean values from Consensus Economics for a sample of 14 Latin American countries between 1989 and 2014. It also assesses the performance of inflation rate forecasts around business cycles' turning points. Results...
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Predictive AI is increasingly used to guide decisions on agents. I show that even a bias-neutral predictive AI can … potentially amplify exogenous (human) bias in settings where the predictive AI represents a cost-adjusted precision gain to … belief updating, expected victims of bias become less likely to be saved by randomness under more precise predictions. An …
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