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exchange rates dynamics in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the classic finances theory; 3) the description on the … theory; 4) the derivation of the time dependent/time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 5) the …/time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 6) the discussion on the developed software program with the embedded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013057
Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums … general shape of the implied volatility function of the corresponding currency pair. Overall, we conclude that there is a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010410031
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987861
Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431367
We estimate a multivariate unobserved components-stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326550
obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on … continuous time theory. In explanatory financial variability modelling this raises several methodological and practical issues … illustration provides an example of where an explanatory model outperforms realised volatility ex post. -- Financial variability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003829997
predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference … between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility -- reflects the costs of insuring against currency … volatility fluctuations, and the strategy sells high-insurance-cost currencies and buys low-insurance-cost currencies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035847
We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012118184
The random walk is often used to model exchange rates. According to the Lucas critique, however, policy shifts may lead to breaks in the trend of exchange rates and hence to long swings. We use a Markov regime-switching model to allow for such swings and we reject the random walk in favor of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014192014
This paper investigates fundamentals-based exchange rate predictability from a different perspective. We focus on predicting currency swings (major trends in depreciation or appreciation) rather than on quantitative changes of exchange rates. Having used a nonparametric approach to identify...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122926