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Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts
Bluedorn, John C. - 2019
We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467
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Regionale Migration in Abhängigkeit von Humankapital und sektoraler Struktur : eine empirische Analyse am Beispiel von Deutschland und Polen
Kubis, Alexander - 2010
behind the observed aggregated inter-regional migration flows. The theory on human capital predicts that job changes between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011454335
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Regionale Migration in Abhängigkeit von Humankapital und sektoraler Struktur : eine empirische Analyse am Beispiel von Deutschland und Polen
Kubis, Alexander - 2009
Regionale Migration; Humankapital; Sektorale Struktur; Deutschland; Polen; Arbeitsmarktmobilität; Prognose … makroökometrischen Modell die Wirkung von Humankapital zur Erklärung aggregierter Migrationsströme zwischen deut-schen NUTS 3 Regionen zu … berücksichtigen. Zu erwartende Investitionen in Humankapital wirken im Ergebnis migrationshemmend. Innerhalb eines makroökonomischen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003905813
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Regionale Migration in Abhängigkeit von Humankapital und sektoraler Struktur : eine empirische Analyse am Beispiel von Deutschland und Polen
Kubis, Alexander - 2010
Kubis, Alexander: Regionale Migration in Abhängigkeit von Humankapital und sektoraler Struktur N=GBV *614480841* …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008699399
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Do Labor Market Activities Help Predict Inflation?
Hu, Luojia - 2010
The authors conduct an empirical analysis of the role of labor market activities in inflation and conclude that wage growth is not very informative for predicting price inflation. But price inflation does seem to help predict wage growth
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139458
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German economy : strong employment growth, weak investment activity
Fichtner, Ferdinand; Brenke, Karl; Clemens, Marius; … - In: DIW economic bulletin 7 (2017) 11, pp. 129-132
The German economy's upward growth trend continues, with the economic output expected to increase by 1.4 percent this year with slightly overloaded capacities. Employment growth remains strong with the creation of 600,000 new jobs, which has in turn led to an increase in private consumption -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011629524
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Forecasting unemployment in Finland : a flow approach
Lindblad, Annika; Gäddnäs, Niklas - 2024
In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows. Our results indicate that Bayesian vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014574000
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Nowcasting Employment in the Euro Area
Banbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354741
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Evaluating Strategic Forecasters
Deb, Rahul - 2019
Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902013
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Should the Timing of Inspections be Predictable?
Ball, Ian; Knoepfle, Jan - 2023
A principal hires an agent to work on a long-term project that culminates in a breakthrough or a breakdown. At each time, the agent privately chooses to work or shirk. Working increases the arrival rate of breakthroughs and decreases the arrival rate of breakdowns. To motivate the agent to work,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357527